Coach Sifu's Corner: How to Thaeriel

Welcome, gladiators, to the virtual ring of Sifu's Bootcamp for Nerds. Today, we're trading in the boxing gloves for our mouse, and the gym for the well-known comfort of our over-dimensioned gaming chairs. Ah yes, the familiar smell of overconfidence followed by rage and deflated egos. Yum.

Instead of crunching abs, we'll be crunching numbers. Instead of uppercuts, we'll be executing strategies. In place of sweat, we'll have... well, there'll still be sweat, but more of an anxious try-hard version. The one that’s not sexy and smells very sour.

Because in our world, the 'nerd' is not the outcast but the cool kid, the Zen master of Wranglers and Bitter Endings. Together, we will enhance your gaming skills and go from being a mere mortal to a compatible spouse to Valka herself. And yes, you'll feel the burn - the burn of GU lighting your GPUs awkwardly on fire as we launch the client and look at our collection.

So, pull up a seat, fellow nerd. Strap on your headsets, adjust your glasses and prepare your battle stations. Let the nerd-fest begin. Sifu, signing in.

Statistics on Thaeriel, The Fallen

Alright, it's time to roll up our sleeves and get dirty with some numbers. In our pursuit of dominance, we can't shy away from the seemingly boring – but important – task of mastering the odds of one of the most OP cards in Gods Unchained: Thaeriel, The Fallen. If you don’t own him, this article is still relevant since you’ll be facing him on ladder/in tournaments.

But why should we care about probabilities, stats, and chance?

Here's the secret: knowledge is power, and in the case of Thaeriel, knowing your odds is important for playing the optimal line when playing/facing Thaeriel.

Picture this: your opponent has just played Thaeriel. You're sitting at 14 health and you've got a tough decision to make. You can either go with a play that you think gives you a 70% chance of winning, provided your opponent doesn't deal 14 damage from their Cultists, or you can heal to 16 health and end up with a 35% chance of winning. So, what do you do?

The problem is, without knowing the likelihood of your opponent dealing 14 damage from their Cultist picks, you can't make the best choice. Understanding these odds is key to making sound strategic decisions in the game.

Or, what if you want to set up lethal and are unsure about your odds of finding a GodBlitz Cultist? Look no further, this article is for you. Let’s take a quick look at our options.

Thaeriel, as you likely know, offers you the choice of three cards, called Cultists, out of eight possible options. I have been crunching the numbers like it's my favorite post-workout snack. Let’s get geeky.

What are the odds of getting at least one specific cultist (for example Conspirator)?

In the first delve-slot, there are 8 options available. Therefore, the probability of not getting a Conspirator is 7/8.

In the second delve-slot, since Conspirator was not shown in the first pick, there are now 7 options left. Thus, the probability of not getting a Conspirator in the second slot is 6/7.

Similarly, in the third delve-slot, there are 6 options left. Therefore, the probability of not getting a Conspirator in the third spot is 5/6. To find the probability of not getting any Conspirator in the three picks, we multiply the probabilities:

So, the probability of being able to pick a Conspirator is:

But more interestingly, what are the odds of getting the option to pick a Conspirator during our 3x3 choices? Remember that the probability of not being shown a Conspirator in a single delve is 5/8.

Since there are three independent delves, the probability of not being shown a Conspirator in any of the three is:

Therefore, the odds of being shown at least one Conspirator during the three delves are:

Now let’s ask:

What are the odds of getting 2 Conspirators from my 3 delves?

Firstly, there are three ways to select exactly two picks from three:

Conspirator appears in the first and second delve, but not the third.Conspirator appears in the first and third delve, but not the second.Conspirator appears in the second and third delve, but not the first.

So we need to calculate the probability of a Conspirator appearing in a delve (which we already calculated as 3/8), as well as the probability of a Conspirator not appearing in a delve (which is 5/8), and combine these according to the three possible sequences above.

Since there are three such sequences, the total probability of exactly two "Conspirators" appearing over three picks is:

So, there is approximately a 26% chance of being shown exactly two "Conspirators" during the three picks.

Now, let’s ask. What are the odds of getting 3 Conspirators? This is a bit easier since we only need to consider one scenario: that a “Conspirator” appears in all three delves.

Let me do one last example of the chance of getting the maximum burst combination (1x Conspirator and 2x Tormentors).

From here on, the math got a bit hairy, and after discussing it with [8M] Nackarub and getting mixed results, I decided to call quits on the math and simulate the next question in a python script (see code).

What are the odds of getting 1 Conspirator and 2 Tormentors from my 3 picks?

Now these are not exact numbers since we have some assumptions going on. For example, I assume you would pick Conspirator over Tormentor if you still haven’t picked a Conspirator. But for all practical cases, they are what you need.

After running 1.000.000 simulations, the odds turned out to be around 12% to get the perfect burst maximum of 15-God damage (given no Frontlines).

TLDR: Important Breakpoint If you’re not interested in the math or just want to have it all summarized, this is what it boils down to. These are the most important max-damage amounts that you should be aware of and the corresponding odds of getting it from Thaeriel.

15-damage (12%): 1x Conspirators, 2x Tormentors

14-damage (10%): 2x Conspirators, 1x Tormentor

12-damage (5%): 3x Conspirators

MIN 9-damage (75%) = 1x Conspirator and 2x any Cultist

Now we could continue and look for further breakpoints with Abbetors (+1, Overkill) and Opressor (Order) to deal with Frontlines but it gets super complicated and there’s really only so much you can expect your brain to be able to remember and act on ingame. The three sets of numbers presented above strike a good balance of practical usefulness in my opinion.

If you've made it this far, even if you skimmed to the TL;DR, great job. Your interest in these details likely places you in the top 5% of the player base. I look forward to encountering you in a match where we can put our skills to the test. Big thanks to [8M] Nackarub for nerding out with me and correcting a few mistakes. Until then, Sifu signing off.

P.S. Did I mess something up? If you found any mistakes in the math/code, please dm in on twitter.com/sifu_gu. I also sometimes post interesting stuff so give a follow as well.